The 21 Biggest Point Spreads in NFL History
Big NFL point spreads are football’s version of a stress test. To hang a line north of 18 points, oddsmakers have to believe the favorite is historic — and the underdog is almost uncompetitive. Using Spreadspoke’s full historical dataset, we pulled every game with a closing spread of -18.5 or higher.
The headline: across these 21 games, favorites went 21–0 straight up, but just 9–12 against the spread. The elites win. The number is what usually loses.
All games with spreads of -18.5 or more
Below are the 21 biggest closing spreads in our dataset, sorted by line size.
| Date | Matchup | Favorite | Spread | Final Score | ATS Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/13/2013 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos | -26.5 | 35–19 | No Cover |
| 11/25/2007 | Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -24.5 | 31–28 | No Cover |
| 12/5/1993 | Cincinnati Bengals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | -24 | 21–8 | No Cover |
| 12/23/2007 | Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -22.5 | 28–7 | No Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | Miami Dolphins at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | -21.5 | 31–6 | Cover |
| 9/22/2019 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -21 | 30–14 | No Cover |
| 12/4/2011 | Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 31–24 | No Cover |
| 12/16/2007 | New York Jets at New England Patriots | New England Patriots | -20.5 | 20–10 | No Cover |
| 1/4/2025 | Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | -20 | 35–10 | Cover |
| 10/24/2021 | Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals | -20 | 31–5 | Cover |
| 9/22/2013 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | -20 | 45–17 | Cover |
| 12/19/1992 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | -20 | 21–14 | No Cover |
| 10/13/1991 | Indianapolis Colts at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | -20 | 42–6 | Cover |
| 11/1/2020 | New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | -19.5 | 35–9 | Cover |
| 12/8/1985 | Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | -19.5 | 17–10 | No Cover |
| 10/3/2021 | Houston Texans at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | -19 | 40–0 | Cover |
| 9/29/2002 | Houston Texans at Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | -19 | 35–17 | No Cover |
| 11/1/1992 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | -19 | 16–7 | No Cover |
| 12/3/2007 | New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens | New England Patriots | -18.5 | 27–24 | No Cover |
| 10/24/1999 | Cleveland Browns at St. Louis Rams | St. Louis Rams | -18.5 | 34–3 | Cover |
| 1/29/1995 | San Diego Chargers vs San Francisco 49ers (Super Bowl XXIX) | San Francisco 49ers | -18.5 | 49–26 | Cover |
Across these 21 games, favorites underperformed the spread on average, despite winning every single matchup outright. The line captured the mismatch — but often overshot the true margin.
Chart: ATS performance on 18.5+ point spreads
This chart shows how often favorites covered the spread in these extreme mismatches.
Notable Games from the List
- 2013 Jaguars at Broncos (-26.5): The biggest spread in modern history. Denver still won by “only” 16, and Jacksonville cashed easily. Denver’s victory was closer than expected.
- 2007 Eagles at Patriots (-24.5): A.J. Feeley and the Eagles nearly stole one, losing by just three in New England’s undefeated regular season. Pats-Eagles point spread largest ever not involving expansion team.
- 1991 Colts at Bills (-20): One of the rare games where the favorite fully justified the number, winning 42–6. Bills overwhelm Colts in dominant win.
- 2021 Texans at Bills (-19): A 40–0 shutout — the blueprint of what oddsmakers are pricing in when they hang a monster spread. Bills shut out Texans 40–0.
- 2020 Jets at Chiefs (-19.5): Mahomes threw five touchdowns as Kansas City cruised past New York. Chiefs cruise past Jets behind Mahomes’ five TDs.
- Super Bowl XXIX (-18.5): The 49ers dominated the Chargers in the most lopsided Super Bowl spread ever. The Super Bowl Point Spread Has A Strange, Strange History.
What the data says about betting huge favorites
- Favorites went 9–12 ATS in these games, despite winning all 21 outright.
- Late scoring matters. Many non-covers came from garbage-time touchdowns by massive underdogs.
- Era clusters exist. You see runs of huge lines in the early 1990s (Bills, 49ers), mid-to-late 2000s (Patriots), and 2019–2021 (Cowboys, Bills, Chiefs, Cardinals vs tanking rosters).
- Public perception drives extremes. Once a team becomes “historic” in the market, spreads stretch to the breaking point.
These 21 games are outliers — but they’re also a warning. The better team almost always wins. The bettor laying three touchdowns is fighting the number, not the matchup.
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