With four road favorites on the slate for Wild Card weekend, the betting public is heavily backing the "better" teams on paper. However, using Spreadspoke’s historical dataset, we’ve uncovered a glaring reality: road favorites in the playoffs are notoriously overvalued.
From double-digit spreads to narrow margins, the history of the Wild Card round shows that home-field advantage often trumps the regular-season record. You can check the current live odds here to see how these lines are moving.
The Los Angeles Rams entering Carolina as 10.5-point road favorites might seem like a lock, but history tells a different story. In Wild Card history, there have only been two other instances of a road favorite laying 10+ points. They are 0-2 against the spread with Seattle winning outright.
| Season | Road Favorite | Home Dog | Spread | Final Score | ATS Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | New Orleans Saints | Seattle Seahawks | -10.0 | 41-36 (SEA) | Underdog Covered |
| 2020 | Tampa Bay Bucs | Washington | -10.0 | 31–23 (TB) | Underdog Covered |
| 2026 | L.A. Rams | Carolina Panthers | -10.5 | TBD | ? |
While the media focuses on road star power, our data shows that being a home underdog in the opening round is actually a position of strength. Across 32 Wild Card games in the Spreadspoke database where the home team was the underdog, they have been a goldmine for bettors.
| Spread Bracket | Total Games | Home Underdogs ATS Wins | Home Underdogs ATS Win % | Home Underdogs Straight Up Wins | Home Underdogs Straight Up Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7+ Points | 3 | 3 | 100% | 2 | 67% |
| 3.5–6.5 Points | 5 | 2 | 40% | 1 | 20% |
| 1–3 Points | 24 | 18 | 75% | 15 | 63% |
| TOTALS | 32 | 23 | 72% | 18 | 56% |
Historically, home underdogs cover the spread 72% of the time. Even more impressive is that they win the game outright 56% of the time. When the spread is within a field goal (1-3 points), the home underdog is particularly lethal, winning outright in 63% of 24 matchups. This suggests that the "home-field advantage" is consistently underestimated by the market in playoff settings.
In playoff football, defensive intensity and weather often cap explosive offenses. Across 158 Wild Card games in the Spreadspoke database, the "Under" has been a remarkably consistent winner, especially for over under lines above 43 points.
| O/U Line Bracket | Total Games | Over | Under | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High (50.0+) | 15 | 6 | 9 | 60% |
| Medium (43.0–49.5) | 68 | 27 | 41 | 60% |
| Low (< 43.0) | 75 | 36 | 39 | 52% |
| TOTALS | 158 | 69 | 89 | 56% |
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