In-Season Updates

2026 NFL Week 5 Power Rankings

Updated: Oct. 6, 2026 · Source: Spreadspoke Analyst data

THE SHORT ANSWER

The Seattle Seahawks hold No. 1 heading into Week 5 at 1699 ELO after beating the Chargers 30–23. Buffalo (1644) stays second despite a 29–26 home loss to New England, and unbeaten San Francisco (1636) and Minnesota (1619) follow. Full table below.

Every week, Spreadspoke ranks every NFL team by ELO rating, a single number that rises with wins and falls with losses. How far it moves depends on the margin of victory and on how strong the opponent was. The league average is 1500.

NFL ELO power rankings (all 32 teams)

Ratings are before this week's games. Move is the change in rank from last week's rankings.

RankMoveTeamRecordELOWeek ±SeasonLast Game
1–Seattle Seahawks3–11699+5+7W 30–23 vs LAC
2–Buffalo Bills3–11644−21+21L 26–29 vs NE
3–San Francisco 49ers4–01636+18▲ +71W 24–14 vs DEN
4–Minnesota Vikings4–01619+5▲ +62W 15–10 vs MIA
5▲ 1Jacksonville Jaguars3–11612+17▲ +46W 22–17 @ CIN
6▲ 1Los Angeles Rams2–21603+17−19W 24–20 @ PHI
7▲ 1New England Patriots2–21600+21−2W 29–26 @ BUF
8▼ 3Denver Broncos2–21592−18▼ −26L 14–24 @ SF
9▲ 2Kansas City Chiefs4–01569+11▲ +77W 30–27 @ LVR
10–Chicago Bears3–11569+8▲ +40W 23–12 vs NYJ
11▲ 1Baltimore Ravens3–11557+4+4W 24–18 vs TEN
12▼ 3Detroit Lions2–21539−24▼ −28L 26–32 @ CAR
13–Philadelphia Eagles2–21535−17▼ −34L 20–24 vs LAR
14–Houston Texans0–41517▼ −25▼ −102L 30–34 vs DAL
15–Cincinnati Bengals2–21506−18▲ +28L 17–22 vs JAX
16–Pittsburgh Steelers2–21504−15−6L 24–27 @ CLE
17–Green Bay Packers2–21487+15▼ −46W 17–14 @ TB
18–Atlanta Falcons2–21485▲ +35+22W 45–24 @ NO
19▲ 1Dallas Cowboys2–21470▲ +25+20W 34–30 @ HOU
20▲ 1Indianapolis Colts2–21467▲ +30+10W 30–13 @ WAS
21▲ 4Carolina Panthers2–21449+24▲ +36W 32–26 vs DET
22▲ 2Cleveland Browns3–11446+15▲ +37W 27–24 vs PIT
23▲ 3New York Giants3–11443+18▲ +34W 36–24 vs ARI
24▼ 2Los Angeles Chargers0–41431−4▼ −97L 23–30 @ SEA
25▼ 2Las Vegas Raiders3–11422−12▲ +93L 27–30 vs KC
26▼ 7Washington Commanders1–31416▼ −30▼ −41L 13–30 vs IND
27▲ 1Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–41409−14▼ −67L 14–17 vs GB
28▼ 1New Orleans Saints1–31390▼ −35▼ −32L 24–45 vs ATL
29▲ 1Miami Dolphins0–41381−5▼ −70L 10–15 @ MIN
30▼ 1Arizona Cardinals1–31381−18+7L 24–36 @ NYG
31–New York Jets1–31344−8+6L 12–23 @ CHI
32–Tennessee Titans0–41278−5▼ −51L 18–24 @ BAL

Tied ratings are ordered by unrounded ELO.

Who has moved most since Week 1

ELO points gained or lost since the start of the season.

RaidersLas Vegas Raiders: +93 ELO since Week 1+93ChiefsKansas City Chiefs: +77 ELO since Week 1+7749ersSan Francisco 49ers: +71 ELO since Week 1+71VikingsMinnesota Vikings: +62 ELO since Week 1+62JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars: +46 ELO since Week 1+46BearsChicago Bears: +40 ELO since Week 1+40BrownsCleveland Browns: +37 ELO since Week 1+37PanthersCarolina Panthers: +36 ELO since Week 1+36GiantsNew York Giants: +34 ELO since Week 1+34BengalsCincinnati Bengals: +28 ELO since Week 1+28FalconsAtlanta Falcons: +22 ELO since Week 1+22BillsBuffalo Bills: +21 ELO since Week 1+21CowboysDallas Cowboys: +20 ELO since Week 1+20ColtsIndianapolis Colts: +10 ELO since Week 1+10SeahawksSeattle Seahawks: +7 ELO since Week 1+7CardinalsArizona Cardinals: +7 ELO since Week 1+7JetsNew York Jets: +6 ELO since Week 1+6RavensBaltimore Ravens: +4 ELO since Week 1+4PatriotsNew England Patriots: −2 ELO since Week 1−2SteelersPittsburgh Steelers: −6 ELO since Week 1−6RamsLos Angeles Rams: −19 ELO since Week 1−19BroncosDenver Broncos: −26 ELO since Week 1−26LionsDetroit Lions: −28 ELO since Week 1−28SaintsNew Orleans Saints: −32 ELO since Week 1−32EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles: −34 ELO since Week 1−34CommandersWashington Commanders: −41 ELO since Week 1−41PackersGreen Bay Packers: −46 ELO since Week 1−46TitansTennessee Titans: −51 ELO since Week 1−51BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers: −67 ELO since Week 1−67DolphinsMiami Dolphins: −70 ELO since Week 1−70ChargersLos Angeles Chargers: −97 ELO since Week 1−97TexansHouston Texans: −102 ELO since Week 1−102

Sample code: build the rankings yourself

The rankings come from spreadspoke_enhanced.csv, which carries pre-game and post-game ELO for both teams in every game. 

import pandas as pd

# Spreadspoke enhanced game file: one row per game, 1966 to present
games = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)

# Week 4 of the 2026 regular season
wk4 = games[
    (games["schedule_season"] == 2026)
    & (games["schedule_week_str"].astype(str) == "4")
]

# Stack home and away sides into one row per team
home = wk4[["home_team_id", "elo_home_pre", "elo_home_post"]]
home.columns = ["team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
away = wk4[["away_team_id", "elo_away_pre", "elo_away_post"]]
away.columns = ["team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
teams = pd.concat([home, away], ignore_index=True)

# Rank 1 to 32 on post-Week 4 ELO
teams["wk4_change"] = teams["elo_post"] - teams["elo_pre"]
teams = teams.sort_values("elo_post", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
teams.index += 1
print(teams.round(0))

The ELO update behind each post-game number uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field edge (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. Here it is as a function you can run on any game:

import math

def elo_update(home_elo, away_elo, home_pts, away_pts, neutral=False, k=20, hfa=65):
    diff = home_elo - away_elo + (0 if neutral else hfa)
    p_home = 1 / (1 + 10 ** (-diff / 400))           # home win probability
    result = 1 if home_pts > away_pts else 0 if home_pts < away_pts else 0.5
    winner_diff = diff if result == 1 else -diff
    mov_mult = math.log(abs(home_pts - away_pts) + 1) * 2.2 / (winner_diff * 0.001 + 2.2)
    shift = k * mov_mult * (result - p_home)
    return home_elo + shift, away_elo - shift

# Week 4: Atlanta won 45-24 at New Orleans
print(elo_update(1425, 1450, 24, 45))   # (1389.9, 1485.1)

GET THE DATA

The file behind these rankings is included in the Spreadspoke ANALYST package. It includes historical data for every NFL game since 1966—including scores, closing spreads, weather, and pre- and post-game ELO ratings.

See ANALYST pricing →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good ELO rating?

ELO centers around 1500 for an average team. Strong playoff-caliber teams sit above 1600; rebuilding teams fall below 1400. The gap between two teams maps to an expected point spread.

Methodology

All figures are computed from the Spreadspoke Analyst data package: spreadspoke_enhanced.csv (results with pre- and post-game ELO: elo_home_pre, elo_home_post, etc.) and nfl_elo_handicapping_master.csv (ELO, closing spreads and model edge per game). Coverage is all 64 regular-season games from Weeks 1–4 of 2026. The model uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field advantage (none at neutral sites, such as Washington vs. Indianapolis in Week 4) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. League average is 1500. This page is published weekly while games are played.

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