In-Season Updates

2026 NFL Week 6 Power Rankings

Updated: Oct. 13, 2026 · Source: Spreadspoke Analyst data

THE SHORT ANSWER

The Seattle Seahawks hold No. 1 heading into Week 6 at 1679 ELO, but the lead is shrinking after a 32–29 home loss to San Francisco. Buffalo (1659) is second, and the 5–0 49ers (1656) and Minnesota (1632) follow. Full table below.

Every week, Spreadspoke ranks every NFL team by ELO rating, a single number that rises with wins and falls with losses. How far it moves depends on the margin of victory and on how strong the opponent was. The league average is 1500.

NFL ELO power rankings (all 32 teams)

Ratings are before this week's games. Move is the change in rank from last week's rankings.

RankMoveTeamRecordELOWeek ±SeasonLast Game
1–Seattle Seahawks3–21679−20−13L 29–32 vs SF
2–Buffalo Bills4–11659+15▲ +36W 37–34 @ LAR
3–San Francisco 49ers5–01656+20▲ +91W 32–29 @ SEA
4–Minnesota Vikings5–01632+13▲ +75W 23–13 @ NO
5–Jacksonville Jaguars4–11620+8▲ +54W 19–17 vs PHI
6▲ 1New England Patriots3–21612+12+10W 45–17 vs LVR
7▲ 1Denver Broncos3–21605+13−13W 23–17 @ LAC
8▼ 2Los Angeles Rams2–31588−15▼ −34L 34–37 vs BUF
9▲ 2Baltimore Ravens4–11578+21▲ +25W 30–23 @ ATL
10▼ 1Kansas City Chiefs4–01569–▲ +77Bye
11▲ 1Detroit Lions3–21561+22−6W 45–21 @ ARI
12▼ 2Chicago Bears3–21535▼ −34+6L 7–31 @ GB
13▲ 1Houston Texans1–41533+16▼ −86W 26–3 @ TEN
14▼ 1Philadelphia Eagles2–31526−9▼ −43L 17–19 @ JAX
15–Cincinnati Bengals3–21523+17▲ +45W 31–24 @ MIA
16–Pittsburgh Steelers3–21522+18+12W 34–22 vs IND
17–Green Bay Packers3–21521▲ +34−12W 31–7 vs CHI
18–Atlanta Falcons2–31465−20+2L 23–30 vs BAL
19▲ 1Indianapolis Colts2–31449−18−8L 22–34 @ PIT
20▲ 1Carolina Panthers2–21449–▲ +36Bye
21▲ 2New York Giants3–1–114430▲ +34T 27–27 @ WAS
22▲ 5Tampa Bay Buccaneers1–41440▲ +31▼ −36W 24–16 @ DAL
23▼ 4Dallas Cowboys2–31438▼ −32−12L 16–24 vs TB
24▼ 2Cleveland Browns3–21426−20+17L 12–17 @ NYJ
25▼ 1Los Angeles Chargers0–51417−14▼ −111L 17–23 vs DEN
26–Washington Commanders1–3–114160▼ −41T 27–27 vs NYG
27▼ 2Las Vegas Raiders3–21410−12▲ +81L 17–45 @ NE
28–New Orleans Saints1–41377−13▼ −45L 13–23 vs MIN
29–Miami Dolphins0–51365−16▼ −86L 24–31 vs CIN
30▲ 1New York Jets2–31364+20▲ +26W 17–12 vs CLE
31▼ 1Arizona Cardinals1–41358−23−16L 21–45 vs DET
32–Tennessee Titans0–51262−16▼ −67L 3–26 vs HOU

Tied ratings are ordered by unrounded ELO.

Who has moved most since Week 1

ELO points gained or lost since the start of the season.

49ersSan Francisco 49ers: +91 ELO since Week 1+91RaidersLas Vegas Raiders: +81 ELO since Week 1+81ChiefsKansas City Chiefs: +77 ELO since Week 1+77VikingsMinnesota Vikings: +75 ELO since Week 1+75JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars: +54 ELO since Week 1+54BengalsCincinnati Bengals: +45 ELO since Week 1+45BillsBuffalo Bills: +36 ELO since Week 1+36PanthersCarolina Panthers: +36 ELO since Week 1+36GiantsNew York Giants: +34 ELO since Week 1+34JetsNew York Jets: +26 ELO since Week 1+26RavensBaltimore Ravens: +25 ELO since Week 1+25BrownsCleveland Browns: +17 ELO since Week 1+17SteelersPittsburgh Steelers: +12 ELO since Week 1+12PatriotsNew England Patriots: +10 ELO since Week 1+10BearsChicago Bears: +6 ELO since Week 1+6FalconsAtlanta Falcons: +2 ELO since Week 1+2LionsDetroit Lions: −6 ELO since Week 1−6ColtsIndianapolis Colts: −8 ELO since Week 1−8PackersGreen Bay Packers: −12 ELO since Week 1−12CowboysDallas Cowboys: −12 ELO since Week 1−12SeahawksSeattle Seahawks: −13 ELO since Week 1−13BroncosDenver Broncos: −13 ELO since Week 1−13CardinalsArizona Cardinals: −16 ELO since Week 1−16RamsLos Angeles Rams: −34 ELO since Week 1−34BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers: −36 ELO since Week 1−36CommandersWashington Commanders: −41 ELO since Week 1−41EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles: −43 ELO since Week 1−43SaintsNew Orleans Saints: −45 ELO since Week 1−45TitansTennessee Titans: −67 ELO since Week 1−67TexansHouston Texans: −86 ELO since Week 1−86DolphinsMiami Dolphins: −86 ELO since Week 1−86ChargersLos Angeles Chargers: −111 ELO since Week 1−111

Sample code: build the rankings yourself

The rankings come from spreadspoke_enhanced.csv, which carries pre-game and post-game ELO for both teams in every game. 

import pandas as pd

# Spreadspoke enhanced game file: one row per game, 1966 to present
games = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)

# 2026 regular season through Week 5
season = games[games["schedule_season"] == 2026].copy()
season["week"] = season["schedule_week_str"].astype(int)
season = season[season["week"] <= 5]

# Stack home and away sides into one row per team per game
home = season[["week", "home_team_id", "elo_home_pre", "elo_home_post"]]
home.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
away = season[["week", "away_team_id", "elo_away_pre", "elo_away_post"]]
away.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
teams = pd.concat([home, away], ignore_index=True)

# Each team's latest game (teams on a Week 5 bye keep their Week 4 rating)
latest = teams.sort_values("week").groupby("team").tail(1)

# Rank 1 to 32 on current ELO
latest = latest.sort_values("elo_post", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
latest.index += 1
print(latest[["team", "week", "elo_post"]])

The ELO update behind each post-game number uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field edge (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. Here it is as a function you can run on any game:

import math

def elo_update(home_elo, away_elo, home_pts, away_pts, neutral=False, k=20, hfa=65):
    diff = home_elo - away_elo + (0 if neutral else hfa)
    p_home = 1 / (1 + 10 ** (-diff / 400))           # home win probability
    result = 1 if home_pts > away_pts else 0 if home_pts < away_pts else 0.5
    winner_diff = diff if result == 1 else -diff
    mov_mult = math.log(abs(home_pts - away_pts) + 1) * 2.2 / (winner_diff * 0.001 + 2.2)
    shift = k * mov_mult * (result - p_home)
    return home_elo + shift, away_elo - shift

# Week 5: Green Bay beat Chicago 31-7
print(elo_update(1487, 1569, 31, 7))   # (1521.0, 1535.0)

GET THE DATA

The file behind these rankings is included in the Spreadspoke ANALYST package. It includes historical data for every NFL game since 1966—including scores, closing spreads, weather, and pre- and post-game ELO ratings.

See ANALYST pricing →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good ELO rating?

ELO centers around 1500 for an average team. Strong playoff-caliber teams sit above 1600; rebuilding teams fall below 1400. The gap between two teams maps to an expected point spread.

Methodology

All figures are computed from the Spreadspoke Analyst data package: spreadspoke_enhanced.csv (results with pre- and post-game ELO: elo_home_pre, elo_home_post, etc.) and nfl_elo_handicapping_master.csv (ELO, closing spreads and model edge per game). Coverage is all 79 regular-season games from Weeks 1–5 of 2026; Kansas City and Carolina were on a bye in Week 5 and keep their Week 4 rating. The model uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field advantage (none at neutral sites, such as Jacksonville vs. Philadelphia in Week 5) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. League average is 1500. This page is published weekly while games are played.

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