In-Season Updates

2026 NFL Week 7 Power Rankings

Updated: Oct. 21, 2026 · Source: Spreadspoke Analyst data

THE SHORT ANSWER

The Buffalo Bills take over No. 1 heading into Week 7 at 1665 ELO, passing Seattle (1664) after a 33–30 win at Las Vegas. Seattle (1664) is second, and San Francisco (1661) and Minnesota (1632) follow. Full table below.

Every week, Spreadspoke ranks every NFL team by ELO rating, a single number that rises with wins and falls with losses. How far it moves depends on the margin of victory and on how strong the opponent was. The league average is 1500.

NFL ELO power rankings (all 32 teams)

Ratings are before this week's games. Move is the change in rank from last week's rankings.

RankMoveTeamRecordELOWeek ±SeasonLast Game
1▲ 1Buffalo Bills5–11665+6▲ +42W 33–30 @ LVR
2▼ 1Seattle Seahawks3–31664−15▼ −28L 14–17 @ DEN
3–San Francisco 49ers6–01661+5▲ +96W 23–17 vs WAS
4–Minnesota Vikings5–01632–▲ +75Bye
5▲ 2Denver Broncos4–21619+14+1W 17–14 vs SEA
6–New England Patriots4–21617+5+15W 26–19 vs NYJ
7▼ 2Jacksonville Jaguars4–21602−18▲ +36L 31–34 vs HOU
8▲ 2Kansas City Chiefs5–01581+12▲ +89W 22–6 vs LAC
9▼ 1Los Angeles Rams2–41567−21▼ −55L 16–18 vs ARI
10▲ 1Detroit Lions3–21561–−6Bye
11▼ 2Baltimore Ravens4–21560−18+7L 10–13 @ CLE
12–Chicago Bears4–21556+21▲ +27W 31–23 @ ATL
13–Houston Texans2–41551+18▼ −68W 34–31 @ JAX
14▲ 2Pittsburgh Steelers4–21541+19▲ +31W 26–19 @ TB
15▲ 2Green Bay Packers4–21534+13+1W 23–13 vs DAL
16▼ 1Cincinnati Bengals3–21523–▲ +45Bye
17▼ 3Philadelphia Eagles2–41489▼ −37▼ −80L 14–25 vs CAR
18▲ 1Carolina Panthers3–21486▲ +37▲ +73W 25–14 @ PHI
19▲ 5Cleveland Browns4–21444+18▲ +35W 13–10 vs BAL
20▼ 2Atlanta Falcons2–41443−22−20L 23–31 vs CHI
21▲ 2Dallas Cowboys2–41425−13▼ −25L 13–23 @ GB
22–Tampa Bay Buccaneers1–51420−20▼ −56L 19–26 vs PIT
23▼ 3Indianapolis Colts2–41414▼ −35▼ −43L 20–26 vs TEN
24▼ 3New York Giants3–2–11413▼ −30+4L 27–34 vs NO
25▲ 1Washington Commanders1–4–11411−5▼ −46L 17–23 @ SF
26▲ 2New Orleans Saints2–41408▲ +31−14W 34–27 @ NYG
27▼ 2Los Angeles Chargers0–61405−12▼ −123L 6–22 @ KC
28▼ 1Las Vegas Raiders3–31404−6▲ +75L 30–33 vs BUF
29▲ 2Arizona Cardinals2–41379+21+5W 18–16 @ LAR
30▼ 1Miami Dolphins0–51365–▼ −86Bye
31▼ 1New York Jets2–41359−5+21L 19–26 @ NE
32–Tennessee Titans1–51298▲ +36▼ −31W 26–20 @ IND

Tied ratings are ordered by unrounded ELO.

Who has moved most since Week 1

ELO points gained or lost since the start of the season.

49ersSan Francisco 49ers: +96 ELO since Week 1+96ChiefsKansas City Chiefs: +89 ELO since Week 1+89RaidersLas Vegas Raiders: +75 ELO since Week 1+75VikingsMinnesota Vikings: +75 ELO since Week 1+75PanthersCarolina Panthers: +73 ELO since Week 1+73BengalsCincinnati Bengals: +45 ELO since Week 1+45BillsBuffalo Bills: +42 ELO since Week 1+42JaguarsJacksonville Jaguars: +36 ELO since Week 1+36BrownsCleveland Browns: +35 ELO since Week 1+35SteelersPittsburgh Steelers: +31 ELO since Week 1+31BearsChicago Bears: +27 ELO since Week 1+27JetsNew York Jets: +21 ELO since Week 1+21PatriotsNew England Patriots: +15 ELO since Week 1+15RavensBaltimore Ravens: +7 ELO since Week 1+7CardinalsArizona Cardinals: +5 ELO since Week 1+5GiantsNew York Giants: +4 ELO since Week 1+4BroncosDenver Broncos: +1 ELO since Week 1+1PackersGreen Bay Packers: +1 ELO since Week 1+1LionsDetroit Lions: −6 ELO since Week 1−6SaintsNew Orleans Saints: −14 ELO since Week 1−14FalconsAtlanta Falcons: −20 ELO since Week 1−20CowboysDallas Cowboys: −25 ELO since Week 1−25SeahawksSeattle Seahawks: −28 ELO since Week 1−28TitansTennessee Titans: −31 ELO since Week 1−31ColtsIndianapolis Colts: −43 ELO since Week 1−43CommandersWashington Commanders: −46 ELO since Week 1−46RamsLos Angeles Rams: −55 ELO since Week 1−55BuccaneersTampa Bay Buccaneers: −56 ELO since Week 1−56TexansHouston Texans: −68 ELO since Week 1−68EaglesPhiladelphia Eagles: −80 ELO since Week 1−80DolphinsMiami Dolphins: −86 ELO since Week 1−86ChargersLos Angeles Chargers: −123 ELO since Week 1−123

Sample code: build the rankings yourself

The rankings come from spreadspoke_enhanced.csv, which carries pre-game and post-game ELO for both teams in every game. 

import pandas as pd

# Spreadspoke enhanced game file: one row per game, 1966 to present
games = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)

# 2026 regular season through Week 6
season = games[games["schedule_season"] == 2026].copy()
season["week"] = season["schedule_week_str"].astype(int)
season = season[season["week"] <= 6]

# Stack home and away sides into one row per team per game
home = season[["week", "home_team_id", "elo_home_pre", "elo_home_post"]]
home.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
away = season[["week", "away_team_id", "elo_away_pre", "elo_away_post"]]
away.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
teams = pd.concat([home, away], ignore_index=True)

# Each team's latest game (teams on a Week 6 bye keep their Week 5 rating)
latest = teams.sort_values("week").groupby("team").tail(1)

# Rank 1 to 32 on current ELO
latest = latest.sort_values("elo_post", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
latest.index += 1
print(latest[["team", "week", "elo_post"]])

The ELO update behind each post-game number uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field edge (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. Here it is as a function you can run on any game:

import math

def elo_update(home_elo, away_elo, home_pts, away_pts, neutral=False, k=20, hfa=65):
    diff = home_elo - away_elo + (0 if neutral else hfa)
    p_home = 1 / (1 + 10 ** (-diff / 400))           # home win probability
    result = 1 if home_pts > away_pts else 0 if home_pts < away_pts else 0.5
    winner_diff = diff if result == 1 else -diff
    mov_mult = math.log(abs(home_pts - away_pts) + 1) * 2.2 / (winner_diff * 0.001 + 2.2)
    shift = k * mov_mult * (result - p_home)
    return home_elo + shift, away_elo - shift

# Week 6: Philadelphia Eagles lost to Carolina Panthers 14-25
print(elo_update(1526, 1449, 14, 25))   # (1489.0, 1486.0)

GET THE DATA

The file behind these rankings is included in the Spreadspoke ANALYST package. It includes historical data for every NFL game since 1966—including scores, closing spreads, weather, and pre- and post-game ELO ratings.

See ANALYST pricing →

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good ELO rating?

ELO centers around 1500 for an average team. Strong playoff-caliber teams sit above 1600; rebuilding teams fall below 1400. The gap between two teams maps to an expected point spread.

Methodology

All figures are computed from the Spreadspoke Analyst data package: spreadspoke_enhanced.csv (results with pre- and post-game ELO: elo_home_pre, elo_home_post, etc.) and nfl_elo_handicapping_master.csv (ELO, closing spreads and model edge per game). Coverage is all 93 regular-season games from Weeks 1–6 of 2026; Bengals, Dolphins, Lions, and Vikings were on a bye in Week 6 and keep their Week 5 rating. The model uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field advantage (none at neutral sites, such as Jacksonville vs. Houston in Week 6) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. League average is 1500. This page is published weekly while games are played.

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