THE SHORT ANSWER
The Buffalo Bills retake No. 1 heading into Week 9 at 1679 ELO after a 36–10 win over Baltimore, passing Seattle (1635), which lost 34–17 at home to Chicago. Denver (1642) is second, and Seattle (1635) and San Francisco (1626) follow. Full table below.
Every week, Spreadspoke ranks every NFL team by ELO rating, a single number that rises with wins and falls with losses. How far it moves depends on the margin of victory and on how strong the opponent was. The league average is 1500.
NFL ELO power rankings (all 32 teams)
Ratings are before this week's games. Move is the change in rank from last week's rankings.
| Rank | Move | Team | Record | ELO | Week ± | Season | Last Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ▲ 1 | Buffalo Bills | 6–1 | 1679 | +14 | ▲ +56 | W 36–10 vs BAL |
| 2 | ▲ 2 | Denver Broncos | 6–2 | 1642 | +9 | +24 | W 28–24 vs KC |
| 3 | ▼ 2 | Seattle Seahawks | 4–4 | 1635 | ▼ −46 | ▼ −57 | L 17–34 vs CHI |
| 4 | ▲ 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 6–1 | 1626 | – | ▲ +61 | Bye |
| 5 | ▲ 4 | Chicago Bears | 6–2 | 1621 | ▲ +45 | ▲ +92 | W 34–17 @ SEA |
| 6 | ▼ 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 6–1 | 1621 | −16 | ▲ +64 | L 15–19 @ DET |
| 7 | ▼ 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5–2 | 1614 | +12 | ▲ +48 | W 42–7 vs IND |
| 8 | ▼ 1 | New England Patriots | 5–3 | 1608 | +10 | +6 | W 24–19 @ MIA |
| 9 | ▼ 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 4–4 | 1595 | +9 | ▼ −27 | W 24–9 vs LAC |
| 10 | – | Detroit Lions | 5–2 | 1587 | +16 | +20 | W 19–15 vs MIN |
| 11 | – | Cincinnati Bengals | 5–2 | 1570 | +5 | ▲ +92 | W 43–36 vs TEN |
| 12 | ▲ 1 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6–2 | 1569 | +16 | ▲ +59 | W 27–6 vs CLE |
| 13 | ▼ 1 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5–2 | 1555 | −10 | ▲ +63 | L 24–28 @ DEN |
| 14 | – | Green Bay Packers | 5–3 | 1536 | +12 | +3 | W 27–19 vs CAR |
| 15 | – | Houston Texans | 2–5 | 1518 | – | ▼ −101 | Bye |
| 16 | – | Baltimore Ravens | 4–4 | 1504 | −13 | ▼ −49 | L 10–36 @ BUF |
| 17 | ▲ 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3–5 | 1493 | +23 | +17 | W 16–0 vs ATL |
| 18 | ▼ 1 | Atlanta Falcons | 3–5 | 1455 | −23 | −8 | L 0–16 @ TB |
| 19 | ▲ 3 | New York Giants | 4–2–1 | 1446 | – | ▲ +37 | Bye |
| 20 | ▼ 1 | Dallas Cowboys | 3–5 | 1445 | −21 | −5 | L 30–33 vs ARI |
| 21 | ▼ 1 | Cleveland Browns | 5–3 | 1438 | −16 | ▲ +29 | L 6–27 @ PIT |
| 22 | ▲ 2 | Washington Commanders | 2–4–1 | 1437 | ▲ +26 | −20 | W 27–10 vs PHI |
| 23 | – | Carolina Panthers | 3–4 | 1424 | −12 | +11 | L 19–27 @ GB |
| 24 | ▼ 3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2–6 | 1422 | ▼ −26 | ▼ −147 | L 10–27 @ WAS |
| 25 | ▲ 3 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4–4 | 1404 | +19 | ▲ +75 | W 38–33 @ NYJ |
| 26 | ▼ 1 | Indianapolis Colts | 2–6 | 1396 | −12 | ▼ −61 | L 7–42 @ JAX |
| 27 | ▼ 1 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0–7 | 1396 | −9 | ▼ −132 | L 9–24 @ LAR |
| 28 | ▼ 1 | New Orleans Saints | 2–5 | 1396 | – | ▼ −26 | Bye |
| 29 | ▲ 1 | Arizona Cardinals | 3–5 | 1388 | +22 | +14 | W 33–30 @ DAL |
| 30 | ▼ 1 | Miami Dolphins | 1–6 | 1371 | −10 | ▼ −80 | L 19–24 vs NE |
| 31 | – | New York Jets | 2–6 | 1323 | −20 | −15 | L 33–38 vs LVR |
| 32 | – | Tennessee Titans | 1–7 | 1283 | −5 | ▼ −46 | L 36–43 @ CIN |
Ratings are whole numbers; teams with the same rating are listed alphabetically.
Who has moved most since Week 1
ELO points gained or lost since the start of the season.
Sample code: build the rankings yourself
The rankings come from spreadspoke_enhanced.csv, which carries pre-game and post-game ELO for both teams in every game.
import pandas as pd
# Spreadspoke enhanced game file: one row per game, 1966 to present
games = pd.read_csv("spreadspoke_enhanced.csv", low_memory=False)
# 2026 regular season through Week 8
season = games[games["schedule_season"] == 2026].copy()
season["week"] = season["schedule_week_str"].astype(int)
season = season[season["week"] <= 8]
# Stack home and away sides into one row per team per game
home = season[["week", "home_team_id", "elo_home_pre", "elo_home_post"]]
home.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
away = season[["week", "away_team_id", "elo_away_pre", "elo_away_post"]]
away.columns = ["week", "team", "elo_pre", "elo_post"]
teams = pd.concat([home, away], ignore_index=True)
# Each team's latest game (teams on a Week 8 bye keep their Week 7 rating)
latest = teams.sort_values("week").groupby("team").tail(1)
# Rank 1 to 32 on current ELO
latest = latest.sort_values("elo_post", ascending=False).reset_index(drop=True)
latest.index += 1
print(latest[["team", "week", "elo_post"]])The ELO update behind each post-game number uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field edge (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. Here it is as a function you can run on any game:
import math
def elo_update(home_elo, away_elo, home_pts, away_pts, neutral=False, k=20, hfa=65):
diff = home_elo - away_elo + (0 if neutral else hfa)
p_home = 1 / (1 + 10 ** (-diff / 400)) # home win probability
result = 1 if home_pts > away_pts else 0 if home_pts < away_pts else 0.5
winner_diff = diff if result == 1 else -diff
mov_mult = math.log(abs(home_pts - away_pts) + 1) * 2.2 / (winner_diff * 0.001 + 2.2)
shift = k * mov_mult * (result - p_home)
return home_elo + shift, away_elo - shift
# Week 8: Washington Commanders beat Philadelphia Eagles 27-10
print(elo_update(1411, 1448, 27, 10)) # (1437.2, 1421.8)GET THE DATA
The file behind these rankings is included in the Spreadspoke ANALYST package. It includes historical data for every NFL game since 1966—including scores, closing spreads, weather, and pre- and post-game ELO ratings.
See ANALYST pricing →Frequently Asked Questions
What is a good ELO rating?
ELO centers around 1500 for an average team. Strong playoff-caliber teams sit above 1600; rebuilding teams fall below 1400. The gap between two teams maps to an expected point spread.
Methodology
All figures are computed from the Spreadspoke Analyst data package: spreadspoke_enhanced.csv (results with pre- and post-game ELO: elo_home_pre, elo_home_post, etc.) and nfl_elo_handicapping_master.csv (ELO, closing spreads and model edge per game). Coverage is all 121 regular-season games from Weeks 1–8 of 2026; 49ers, Giants, Saints, and Texans were on a bye in Week 8 and keep their Week 7 rating. The model uses K = 20, a 65-point home-field advantage (none at neutral sites) and a margin-of-victory multiplier. League average is 1500. This page is published weekly while games are played.
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